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Prospects vs Results

If you’ve read my latest couple of blurbs under prospecting you’ll have seen bit about the Jays Journal Prospect Hot Sheet.  I had a quick twitter chat with Kyle Matte who writes the weekly piece (well worth a follow) and asked him about why he only mentioned the ‘noteworthy’ players opening their seasons with Bluefield and the GCL Jays.  Below was his response:


He also made it pretty clear that he felt Vancouver got a bit short-changed as far as short-season assignments were concerned.  The conversation got me thinking a bit.  I’m a fan of baseball in Vancouver, which means the C’s.  But in the larger sense, a fan of the Blue Jays and their organization.  What would I rather do?  Watch a winning team?  Or suffer through some losses, secure in the knowledge I’m watching some of Jays best prospects get their feet wet in pro ball?

Now, again, there may be some unpolished diamonds in Vancouver, but as far as say, the top 50 prospects in the Jays system (go here and scroll down left hand sidebar for an example list), not many would rank.  Also, I have the average age of the current roster at 22 for position players and 23 for pitchers.  That is old for this level.  So, if they are playing teams that are younger and rawer, you would expect the C’s to win.  Similar to if a country entered a team full of 17 yr olds into the World Junior Hockey Tournament which is essentially a showcase for 19 yr olds.  No matter how good those 17 yr olds are, they will generally struggle against older, bigger, stronger, more experienced players.

I have to admit, I’m a bit torn on this issue.  A part of me just wants to go the yard and watch a well-played baseball game ending up in a win for the C’s.  But the part of me that checks the results of all the Jays farm teams every night, seeing who has done well, and reads reports on who’s hot and who’s not throughout the system desperately wants to see some of these high end draft picks make their bones in Vancouver.  Sure, there’ll be mistakes, but am pretty certain those will be offset by a flash of whatever plus tools made these kids into highly rated prospects in the first place.

(as an aside, and in reference to Zauny’s latest rant, the subjectivity of prospect rankings and how the various prospecting sources get their info is an issue.  Something that could fill its own post I’m sure)

I’m pretty sure I can guess what the C’s would prefer.  From the GM on down to the beer vendors.  They want to put bums in seats and sell beers.  A winning product generally makes this a lot easier.  But I wonder what the C’s GM would say if AA gave him the choice.  Deep down, wouldn’t he want to see some of those high end kids here as well?  Rather than 11/12 returnees?

I wish people actually read this blog so I could ask them……

Is this the most important thing?

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