Thirty five days (the C’s clock is for the home opener). If the weather stays like this, that time will fly by. And to whet our appetite the Canadians are staging their annual Super Saturday tomorrow. An excellent opportunity to get a sneak preview of the Nat. The day provides an opportunity for all junior Canadians to run the bases, auditions for those looking to sing the national anthems this season, and the official opening of the team store. Speaking of which, for the past two seasons I have visited the official shop, I’ve been disappointed by the lack of C’s sweatbands. Surely they’d be a must have for all the Main Street hipsters? And those kids running the bases would love ‘em.

I may use this forum to start a Canadians sweatband campaign.

The sweatband campaign would replace my extended spring training informational campaign. As it has failed miserably. Writing the Jays has proven to be a waste of time. In truth, with my recent travels, I had forgotten about my recent pledge. After running across the below tweet though, my interest was once again piqued.

Tirado pitching now, looking good, FB up to 94

— Gerry McDonald (@mcdogerry) May 7, 2013

Alberto Tirado is, along with Matt Smoral, one of the young pitchers I am desperate to see at the Nat this season. As they are young, eighteen and nineteen respectively, I can see a situation similar to Daniel Norris last year, where they begin the season in Bluefield before getting a mid to late season promotion to help the Canadians win their third straight Northwest League title. Frustrating for those of us that want to see these kids develop, but both will provide a boost whenever they arrive.

I digress. Back to the campaign. Mailing the Blue Jays wasn’t my only port of call. I had mailed a few other prospecters I am on mailing terms with to see if they had any hints on how to get extended spring training info. After few responses I went back to Gerry McDonald who was obviously in Florida:

@charliecaskey Done today, home tomorrow.Extended info is not published

— Gerry McDonald (@mcdogerry) May 9, 2013

Game, set, match.

A few other roster notes. Two fan favourites from the C’s 2012 season are struggling in Lansing. Balbino Fuenmayor and the Single Digit Assassin Jorge Flores are both at risk of receiving a plane ticket to Vancouver once the short seasons begin. Balbino, in particular, is stinking it up for the Lugs. In sixty-two at bats, he has ten hits! Adding in his seven walks gives us a rather poor .257 OBP. His K percentage sits at 34.3% which is 0.2% better than his career worst which he racked up as a seventeen year old rookie in the Gulf Coast League. I’ve said this numerous times, I’m no scout. But, it’s not hard to read into such obvious numbers. If a twenty-three year old, in his seventh season of pro ball, is still striking out over a third of the time, his pitch recognitions is poor, and he probably isn’t worth developing any further. That being said, the dearth of first basemen in the Jays system may, not only, save Fuenmayor’s job, but possibly even keep him in Lansing.

The same can be said for Jorge. With his shortstop competition, Emilio Guerrero, currently on the DL, Jorge will get the bulk of the reps at short, where, over the last seventeen games, he’s been better. He’s been getting on base at a much higher clip and eight of his thirteen hits have been doubles which actually puts him into the team league for two base hits. His fate will still rest on Guerrero’s status and what happens in the draft.

Another ex-C who may, in fact, be a future C, is Kellen Sweeney. I can’t say I had high hopes for Sweeney in Lansing, but after seeing him live at the Nat last season, I felt he was better than his numbers suggested. That may be the case again this year, but his numbers are bad. The Jays have struggled with drafting third basemen of late so Kellen’s problems must be particularly galling. Whether they let him ride it out in the Midwest League or send him back to Vancouver will be interesting.

There is another high draft pick (hint, he was mentioned above) who is struggling in his first season in Lansing. There may be mitigating factors however and I am trying to to get a bit more information from those that have seen him live before making any judgements. Hopefully a post will follow.

Social media is fun.  It allows for opinions to be vented instantaneously.  Sometimes this goes bad, as people tweet before thinking.  There are two prevailing opinions regarding the Jays on Twitter right now.  One has the season as finished, blow up the team, start fresh.  The other is preaching patience, the season is young, let’s see where we are at the end of May.  Below is a tweet from one of the patient ones:

From 2003-2011 19 teams would have made the playoffs (or played a tiebreaker) under the new format. THIRTEEN were at or below .500 in April.

— Andrew Stoeten (@AndrewStoeten) April 28, 2013

Andrew Stoeten is the editor of a site I visit often, drunkjaysfans.com. His opinions are generally thought provoking and his writing can be both fantastic and acerbic. Get on the wrong side of him, and things can get quite ugly.  Troll is a term he throws out quite liberally, and he gets a ton of commenters on his site, so is an expert in the field of spotting them.  Are the folks that are jumping off the bandwagon trolls though?  I’m sure there are a few of them out there, messing with those Jays fans whose expectations, post off-season trades, had gone through the roofs.  Others, though, are simply disappointed with Toronto’s start and are voicing their displeasure online.  Something Stoeten has an answer for:

It’s true. But not the ones into week 3 of panicky idiocy. RT @ryan_courcelle: @andrewstoeten @humandchuck Some people are just realistic.

— Andrew Stoeten (@AndrewStoeten) April 28, 2013

So, back to the original question, if it is too early to panic (which I believe is correct) what, if anything, can we infer from the poor start?

Last year it always seemed like the team was one element short most nights.  If the pitching was on, the hitting was off, if the hitting was working, the defense would let them down.  Please bear in mind, that observation is based on the 140 odd games I watched, not any sort of statistical analysis.  For this year, let’s take a look at a few stats.  I’d like to use some of the more advanced statistical tools, but I don’t think the sample size is large enough for those metrics.  Which begs the question, why am I looking at any stats at all?  For fun.

Offensively, the Jays aren’t really doing anything of note.  They are in the bottom four in average and on-base percentage.  In BB/K ratio they sit 24th while OPS has them at 21st.  Considering the giddiness I had over this lineup back in January, things have not clicked.  The only player that got off to a hot start, Jose Reyes, is down for three months with a bad ankle.  Of the regulars, only four are getting on base at better than three times in ten, and one of those is Munenori Kawasaki, Reyes’ replacement at shortstop.  The new faces, not named Reyes, are struggling.  As are the veterans Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.  The guys you hoped may have good season, but secretly were worried about?  They’ve been ok.  Take away Colby Rasmus‘ and J.P. Arencibia‘s inflated slugging percentages though, and you have some pretty average numbers.

The pitchers aren’t faring much better, sitting near the bottom of the league in both FIP and xFIP.  Individually, again, aside from decent starts (relatively) from both J.A. Happ and R.A. Dickey, things have not gone well.  The biggest disappointment thus far has been Brandon Morrow.  I really expected him to build on the last two years.  So far he really hasn’t.  For a power pitcher his 2.11 K/BB ratio is low, while his 1.54 WHIP is too high.

On the fielding side of the equation, I have said before and will say it again, I have not read up enough on advanced defensive metrics to confidently write about them.  From what I can gather, UZR par is 0.  Anything under and you are below average. Funnily enough, the Jays are below average.  That can only improve though, as the main culprits are Mark DeRosa at third and Emilio Bonifacio at second.  Both are positions those two won’t be playing much of anymore.  Unfortunately, Boni’s replacement at second, Maicer Izturis, has been even worse, bringing up the rear with a -2.7 UZR.

So, what did that exercise in negativity accomplish?  The Jays current record sits at 9 and 17.  Last year’s two wild card teams won 93 ball games.  Small sample size I know, but 2012 was the first year with the two wild card system.  With the top teams in the American League West getting stronger, while also getting the opportunity to beat up on Houston all season, you would expect that number to stay consistent.  But for arguments sake, let’s say 90 wins gets you a wild card.  That leaves the Jays having to win 81 of 136 games, or having to maintain a .600 clip.

The way they are playing now, that won’t happen.  I have no doubt they will improve, especially offensively, as guys like Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie find their groove.  Lawrie’s return will have a positive impact on the defensive side of the equation as well.  He can’t pitch though.

Obviously, if Toronto has any chance of winning 81 more games, all three facets of their game will need to improve markedly.  Mix in a bit of luck, health, and other intangibles and they could very well be in the wild card hunt come September.  It will be a tough ask though.  This isn’t a veteran team used to winning.  You could count on one hand the world series rings in the group.  I guess, deep down, I’ve given up a bit myself.  I really hope this team can get things turned around.  I have a lot more games to watch this season.

(this piece originally appeared at http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2013/04/30/what-can-we-read-into-april/ on the 30th of April.  As per the first paragraph, had a lot of things on my mind whilst writing it, so slipped my mind to publish here as well.  Better late than never.)

Sweeney sneaks a bit of cake between pitches
(photo courtesy of vancouverprovince.com)

assuming that all players in the Jays system get off to hot starts.  So, that leaves us with two sources for the C’s opening day lineup.

The first is the draft.  Last year saw ten 2012 draftees grace Vancouver’s opening day roster.  I think that number was inflated somewhat by the Jays strategy of drafting all college seniors in rounds four through ten in an effort to save bonus allocation money.  I’m not going to speculate about the Jays 2013 strategy as they are the only one that knows that.  So, for arguments sake, let’s go with ten from this year’s draft.

That leaves with twenty to twenty-five roster players that are currently in the system.  Again, making the assumption that none will come from above, all those players are currently in extended spring training.  What is extended spring training?  It is exactly what it says on the tin.  Players work out and play games against other Florida based teams from the Jays spring training complex in Dunedin.  Although not directly Blue Jays related, here is an article giving a bit more colour on the nuts and bolts.

The big difference between extended and normal spring training is the availability of information, which makes my job that much more difficult.  I have struggled to find the Jays EST roster or any boxscores for the games that they play.  So, this is my mission.  I hope to uncover some of the mysteries of extended spring training and share them with the readers.

There is still over two months to go before Opening Day of the short season leagues.  Any future C’s still have a long hard slog in front of them.  The team that is sent north come June should be a well oiled machine.  Hopefully one that includes the likes of Matt Smoral and Alberto Tirado.  Although I won’t hold my breath on those two.

On another note, I’m not going to write an article for every appearance by an ex-C with the Lugnuts. Boring and impractical. After an off-season of reviews, recaps, and predictions, the start of the minor league season is like a child being born after nine months of preparation. Exciting. And you feel like you need to record every moment. Also, speaking of children, mine are out of the country at the moment, so have time to write, and is there anything better to write about than prospects? (especially when the big club is getting hammered 13-0 by the hated Red Sox).

that’s some good stretching

As a disclaimer, I know we’re only four games into the season, so I’m not getting overly excited, but Lansing’s starters have been nothing short of brilliant so far, and three of the four were C’s last year. I discussed Javier Avendano’s outing on Friday, so will leave that one. Saturday saw his 2012 running mate Taylor Cole take the bump, and, if possible, he was even better. Striking out seven over six innings pitched, allowing only two base runners on a walk and a hit. To complete the C’s reunion, Matt Johnson and Tucker Donahue followed Cole, giving up a run a piece, with Johnson’s unearned.

Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, the radio voice of the Lugs had this to say about Cole’s start. Sounds familiar doesn’t it?

@charliecaskey @stivbators Pitching, pure and simple. Worked both sides of the plate, kept the batters off balance, and made it look easy.

— Jesse G-S (@jgoldstrass) April 6, 2013

Yesterday saw Vancouver skipp-er Alonzo Gonzalez take the hill, and wouldn’t you know it, he was pretty dominant as well. A-Go allowed a few more base runners with three hits and two walks, but similar to Avendano and Cole in that there were zero earned runs and at least a strike out an inning. Once again, we defer to Lugs expert Jesse G-S:

Very much in command and poised. RT @charliecaskey: @jgoldstrass how did Gonzalez look last night? 3 great starts to begin the season…

— Jesse G-S (@jgoldstrass) April 7, 2013

So, what could be better than three excellent starts in a row? Easy, Roberto Osuna getting his first outing of the season. And, you guessed it, there are not enough superlatives. Five innings pitched, eight strikeouts, zero walks. He did break the trend as far as earned runs, but apparently the one allowed was down to a fluke inside the park home run where the ball got stuck in the fence.

From what I can gather, Osuna was only working off his fastball. It was just that overpowering that Captains hitters couldn’t touch it. Take into account that Roberto’s best pitch is probably his change up and things are looking good.

I have to admit, I’m quite surprised by the Jays not going with the piggy backing system with these young pitchers in Lansing. I like it, just surprised. Not sure what it will mean as they approach their innings limits for the season.

Daniel Norris is going tonight. The left-hander is probably the pitcher I most want to see succeed, considering the money the Jays sunk into him, but the one I am the least confident in. After the first four starts, there is a certain standard to uphold. Let’s hope Daniel can get the job done.

The hitters have gotten off to a good start as well. Will give it a few more days to increase the sample size before extolling their virtues in this forum.

(as an aside, my agreement with the Vancouver Sun allows for exclusivity of content for twenty-four hours. Hence the fact the time line for some of the posts on this site is out of whack.  Instead of going through and re-editing each post I’m going to publish and hope readers understand.  Any questions, misunderstandings, etc can be clarified on twitter @charliecaskey)

Two ex-C’s stalwarts took to the hill for their teams opening games.  Both were integral parts of the C’s back to back Northwest League championships.  Jesse Hernandez started and pitched brilliantly in the deciding game of the 2011 finals against the Tri-City Dust Devils, while Javier Avendano had an unbelievable 2012.

In Javier we trust

Enough of living in the past though, what have you done for me lately.

Jesse had an interesting 2012, spending two thirds of it in Lansing where he was pretty good, putting up a 3.21 SO/BB ratio and a WHIP of 1.056.  The other third was in High A Dunedin where he struggled somewhat, despite putting up three excellent starts in July, including one where he flirted with a no hitter.  He was demoted after those starts, before being recalled to Dunedin in late August.  At twenty-five he is probably slipping further towards organizational filler status.  Most scouts I read/talk to point to the lack of a true ‘out’ pitch.

Despite all that though, he was given the ball against Clearwater and pitched well, giving up two hits and one run, while striking out six over six innings.  The D-Jays bullpen managed to hold the fort from there, maintaining a 4-2 Dunedin win.

In Lake County, the Lansing Lugnuts bullpen and defense got off to a shaky start as they committed three errors in a 5-4 loss.  Still doesn’t take the gloss off of Avendano’s excellent start.  Over five innnings pitched, the right-hander gave up two hits for zero earned runs, striking out six.  Eyeballing the recap, it looks like Javier had a 60/40 ground ball to fly ball ratio.  All in all, an excellent first start.

Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about Daniel Norris‘ first Lansing appearance.  The top prospect got knocked around in his one inning of work, giving up three hits and two walks for a 5 WHIP.  When you read the scouting reports, they all salivate over the big lefties stuff.  Makes it all the more frustrating that he doesn’t seem to be able to put it all together.

Taylor Cole looks set to get the start for Lansing tonight.  Will be keeping a close eye on that one.

(as an aside, my agreement with the Vancouver Sun allows for exclusivity of content for twenty-four hours. Hence the fact the time line for some of the posts on this site is out of whack – ie. Taylor Cole started Friday night, so I’m two days behind.  Instead of going through and re-editing each post I’m going to publish and hope readers understand)

As I have only been writing about the Canadians for a season, most of last year’s roster will either have been promoted one, possibly two levels, repeating with the Canadians, or released.  With the information we currently have, we should be able to get a rough sketch of the C’s opening day roster, as well as pick out a few interesting prospects that will make their way to Vancouver at some point in 2013.

To the teams, and I’m using this article for the lists.  I’ve confirmed the names with various team pages but is easier to read them all off the one page battersbox provides.

Knecht looks in (image courtesy of mlbprospectportal.com)

There were no real surprises in Dunedin (unless, of course, you want to discuss Ricky Romero‘s demotion, but that is a story unto its own).  From last year’s C’s team, I only predicted three baby Blue Jays.  Two of the three picks came good.  Outfielders Matt Newman and Nick Baligod will look to prove themselves in what is a tough hitting environment.  Just ask Michael Crouse and Marcus Knecht, both one time high end prospects who struggled in the Florida sun in 2012.  You would expect they will take up two of the three spots, making it hard on the ex C’s to find playing time.

My third 2012 C heading to Dunedin was Ian Kadish.  Admittedly, I’m a bit surprised by his Lansing assignment.  I really thought he’d done enough to warrant a promotion.  Will keep a close eye on him at the start of the season.

Lansing’s roster is far more interesting, and for the second year in a row, the Lugnuts fans should be excited.  Not only did they get prized pitching prospects Roberto Osuna and Daniel Norris, but there was some surprising, aggressive pushes for some of the younger players.

Let’s split the Lugs roster into three categories:

1) The No Brainers – guys I predicted to end up in the Midwest League, but it really wasn’t rocket science.  That includes Osuna and Norris.  Add in 2012 C’s stalwarts Javier Avendano and Taylor Cole and you have the makings of a very good rotation.  In the bullpen I’m happy to see Matt Johnson take the next step in his re-birth as a pitcher.  Andrew Sikula was an easy call as well.

In the field, despite his short stint in Vancouver, you got the feeling the Jays were looking to push Christian Lopes.  Dalton Pompey is looking to rebound after an injury ravaged season, I’m curious to see if he’s Lansing’s starting center fielder come opening day.  This being Balbino Fuenmayor‘s fourth kick at the can in full season ball, if he fails this year, surely it will be the end of his Blue Jays career.  Jorge Flores is making the leap as well, however I think he’ll struggle for reps with some of the other middle infielders on the roster.

2) Aggressive Surprises – These guys provide mixed emotions.  I really wanted to see them at the Nat, but overall success is more important.  So, for the good of the organization, I’m going to be magnanimous, and wish all of these fellas the best of luck.

I had both of Lansing’s current catchers in Vancouver this season.  I couldn’t figure out then who of Santiago Nessy or Seth Conner would get more starts.  Now that they are both in Lansing, I’m still not sure, just more games to go around I suppose.

Nessy ups and fires

With the Big Bopper Balbino the only other recognized first basemen, there is a very good chance that Conner sees some time at first.  With Conner’s prospect status still in the ascendancy, there is no way Fuenmayor should take at bats away from Seth.  I was also a bit surprised (pleasantly mind) with Alonzo Gonzales skipping the Nat for Lansing.  As he was drafted out of junior college, the Jays brass may feel he is physically ready to make the jump.

3) The Head-Scratchers – Leo Hernandez, Ron Melendez, and Carlos Ramirez are all interesting additions, given their lack of playing time last year, and poor results when they did play.  I can’t foresee them getting much playing time in Lansing so not sure how well served they will be in Michigan.  There’s a good chance they end up somewhere else when the shorter seasons begin.

I had broken my ‘no-release’ prediction rule on both Ben White and Tucker Donahue.  I’m happy to see that my crystal ball was a bit cloudy, and both have landed on their feet in the midwest.  Getting there is one thing, staying will be another. Fooling A ball hitters with their mediocre stuff will prove a challenge.

What we have to bear in mind is fact that with the C’s not starting their season until mid June, Lansing and Dunedin have sixty odd games prior to the beginning of the short seasons.  For a lot of the players above, the Jays would have decided they would be better served in live games rather than in extended.  It is still an audition though.  Like Kellen Sweeney last season, players that struggle early, will find themselves back in extended before being assigned to a rookie ball team.  I’d love for it not to happen, but in real life, these kids will struggle.

As I mentioned previously, with the names in Lansing, we should be able to get a rough idea of Vancouver’s opening day roster by process of elimination.  Instead of starting that exercise now, let’s split it out into a separate post, allowing for more detailed coverage.  As a teaser though, there is one center fielder who I had fully expected to be in Lansing.  Vancouver fans should count themselves very fortunate that they are going to get to see him play for at least the first couple months of 2013.

And to be perfectly honest, I have been dreading this final piece of the puzzle.  For me, if you are a reliever in short season rookie ball, then you are nothing more than organizational filler going forward.  I may be being narrow minded.  Plenty of great relievers aren’t failed starters.  Relievers may also go in the opposite direction, using the bullpen to build arm strength before switching to the rotation as they physically mature.  The C’s did have one such arm in their ‘pen last year, and, of the names below, he’ll be the one to keep an eye on going forward.

I’ve broken down the relievers by most appearances, with less than 50% of those being starts, while adding in a few bonus entries.  My picks of names that may have a future in the system.

With the head of the organization due to kick off their much anticipated 2013 tomorrow and the A ball teams above Vancouver starting Thursday, things are starting to happen

(update) Mar. 19: Vancouver Canadians (Short-A) release RHP Jonathan Lucas. #bluejays #jays

— Blue Jays Moves (@BlueJaysMoves) March 28, 2013

To be honest, I don’t know why Vancouver would release Jonathan and not Toronto.  Possibly, if a player is to be released, it is technically from his last served team.  If you look at the list below (as always, courtesy of baseballreference.com), Lucas was near the top in both appearances and innings pitched:

_______

Now, I’ve said this numerous times on this blog.  I refuse to make ‘released’ predictions.  I’m going to give everyone a chance to make a team.  With our first cut of the spring though, I’m going to sidestep my self-imposed restraint by adding a few names to the Jonathan Lucas category:

Eric Brown – I hate to do this to 2012′s opening day starter, and to such a great story.  An Ontario kid who played for U.B.C.,

Eric Brown in C’s red (photo courtesy of vancouversun.com)

Brown was a 50th round pick in 2011, the last of his kind as ’11 was the final year the draft went 50 rounds.  If you look at his numbers last season though, things just don’t look good.  Everything bar his K/BB ratio is under the Lucas line.  He did have a .358 BABIP making his FIP over two runs lower than his ERA.  That’s a positive.  The 1.73 WHIP and 12.2 hits per nine means he just struggles to get people out.  At twenty-three, he’ll find a niche in Independent ball.

Tucker Donahue – I needed another body to even things out here a bit (very scientific, I know) so, based on the numbers, Tucker gets the nod.  And let’s be honest, he did struggle.  With similar numbers in WHIP and H/9 to Eric it shouldn’t be such a tough call, but last year was Tucker’s first in pro ball.  You would expect the Jays may give him another chance.  I’m going to go on a limb and say he has a poor extended spring training and they Lucas him.

The Canadians – this is a bit of a dual moniker as both the below names are actually Canadian and, if they are not Lucas’d, they have done nothing to deserve a promotion, so if still in the organization, will be back in Vancouver:

Nicholas Purdy – Purdy has three things going for him (aside from being Canadian). He’s big at 6’5″ so creates a nice downward plane to his fastball.  As per this article, he came to pitching quite late in life, so maybe deserves more time.  He had one excellent spell in 2011 with the GCL Jays where he struck out 13.7/9.  The bad: he struggles to get people out.  In his first three seasons his WHIP is 1.418.  Even the year he struck out so many he made up for it by walking 5.43/9.  If he gets through extended, this year will be his last to prove he belongs.

Zack Breault  – Another big bodied Ontarian, 2012 was Zack’s repeat year with the C’s.  And, if looking at the counting stats, his numbers did improve.  However, if digging a bit deeper, his BABIP dropped to a lucky .260 and his BB/9 rate ticked up a bit, giving him a 1.17 K/BB ratio.  Not good enough.  At twenty-four, he’ll do well to get out of extended.

Lansing bound:

Matt manning his new position

Matt Johnson – The feel good story of 2012.  Johnson was an older middle infielder who came in to do some mop up duty in a blowout.  His fastball touched the 90s and things just went from there.  With an excellent 9.77 K/9 rate and 2.18 FIP Johnson impressed.  The rumour had him heading to the instructional league after the C’s wrapped up their season.  I was unable to confirm if he did pitch and, if so, how well, but at his age, it is safe to assume, provided all went well, he will begin the season in Lansing.

Andrew Sikula – I wrote about Andy over at Jays Journal.  To rehash, he’s not overly overpowering, decent control, but got a bit lucky last year with this BABIP against.  He struck out over two less hitters per nine in the Northwest than the Appalachian league.  If that trend continues into the Midwest, he could find himself in a bit of trouble.

Enjoying the Florida sun in Dunedin:

Ian Kadish -  Another older guy, Kadish was dominant in fifteen appearances with the C’s last year with a 14.29 K/9 ratio and 2.19 FIP.  He was promoted to Lansing where he threw pretty well.  His BABIP rose 70 points and K rate naturally dropped, but he definitely threw well enough to start out with Dunedin and see how he fares.

Marcus Stroman – And finally, we get to Marcus, probably the only hurler on this list that has any chance of seeing time in a Blue Jays uniform.  Most should know his back-story.  After being drafted in the first round this past year, Stroman was labelled the most mlb ready player in the draft.  His short tenure in Vancouver didn’t disappoint as he struck out near enough 12 hitters per nine and displayed a sparking 1.35 FIP.  A promotion to double A New Hampshire followed and things were going swimmingly until he was hit with a fifty game suspension for a banned substance.  It was apparently in an over the counter supplement he purchased in Vancouver.  He still has plenty of that suspension to serve, so won’t see the mound anytime soon.  He did get into two spring training games in last ten days though, giving up zero hits over four innings of work with two K’s and a walk.

Anthopoulos has stated that Marcus will be stretched out as a starter in Dunedin, but with his ability to help the pen right now, it will be interesting to see how long they stick to their guns.

So, that’s it, my final review piece of the 2012 season.  I’ve written the last half of the piece while watching Texas play Houston in the opening game of the season.  That means the big boys have all left the spring training complexes.  I’d like to give an accurate prediction of when the minor league rosters will be officially announced, but in reality, I have no idea.  With Lansing and Dunedin beginning on Thursday, let’s say we have the necessary information on Tuesday.

(editors note: they were actually released yesterday! Will go through as soon as reasonably possible)

The C’s were definitely the beneficiaries of the Jays drafting acumen in 2011.  Getting looks, albeit brief, of highly touted arms Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Justin Nicolino.  Those three had very interesting 2012s, having burned through the Midwest League as the all conquering Lansing Big Three, before seeing the group split up over two separate off-season blockbuster deals.

I don’t think 2012 saw the same star quality at the Nat, but, without spoiling anything, there was one prospect who dropped jaws with his Northwest League debut, another very talented lefty who maybe failed to live up to expectations, and two returnees who had incredible seasons, forcing themselves into the Jays prospect mix.

The details:

______

Admittedly, I’m cheating a bit here, as there are others that started games for the C’s last year and even some who made more starts then a couple on the list.  But the two with the least amount above just happen to be the most intriguing prospects.  So I wanted to talk about them.  And the post can only be so long before people tune out, so some had to go.

I’m going to break down the six into three groups of two, starting with:

The Prospects:

Roberto Osuna – Osuna’s C’s debut was nothing short of spectacular, striking out 13 of the 19 hitters he faced over five shutout

Photo courtesy of vancouversun.com

innings.  I’m not going to say Osuna was unknown to prospectors prior to this start, but with in today’s digital age, that start went viral, firmly entrenching and elevating the Mexican right hander’s status as a top prospect.  Unsurprisingly, Osuna’s following appearances didn’t quite live up to the debut, but after a two week break to visit his ailing mother, Osuna’s two playoff starts were fantastic, striking out 15 of the 30 hitters faced, giving up a mere two hits in the process.  The knock on Osuna, as a prospect, has always been that at only 18 he is already 6’2″ and weighs 230 pounds, meaning there is little room for scouts to dream.  In their minds, he is already at his playing weight, and, if anything, will only have weight problems in the future.  I’m a bit simpler.  The Jays have a kid who, if American, would be in his draft year, and probably a top three pick.  He has a fastball in the mid-90s, a fantastic change up, decent curveball, and most importantly knows how to pitch.  There is nothing not to like here.

In fact, I think the Jays will soon have a conundrum on their hands.  They’ve always stated that their teenage pitchers will stay in Low A ball on innings limits until they turn at least 20 and mature physically.  For tall, skinny kids such as Sanchez, that makes sense.  He has developing to do.  But Osuna is already a man physically.  If he dominates with Lansing as an 18 year old, the Jays need to be more aggressive in their approach.  I’d love to see him in Dunedin by the end of this season, but I think that is wishful thinking.

Daniel Norris – The titular subject of my first ever post at yourvancs, Norris’ first season in pro ball was a bit mixed.  A first round talent with signability concerns,  the left hander slid to the second round where the Jays snapped him up and signed him to a well above slot bonus of 2 million bucks.  The late signature delayed his pro debut to 2012.  Given his stuff, some pundits had Norris skipping rookie ball and starting his career in full-season with Lansing.  Selfishly, I was hoping for a Vancouver assignment.  Turns out we were getting ahead of ourselves.  Bluefield was the first stop.  After a fantastic debut raised expectations, a perfect four innings with five strike outs, things didn’t quite go as planned from there.  As per Marc Hulet’s scouting report the decent peripherals (K/9, FIP, etc.) made up for some pretty ugly counting stats.  Listening to Rob Fai’s call for his start against Boise on the 25th of August, it sounded like he couldn’t get his breaking ball working, allowing hitters to tee off on the fastball.  That will be priority number one during spring training, if he proves that his secondary pitches are ready, Daniel will join Osuna in Lansing, piggy backing starts for the first half of the season.

The Stalwarts:

In Javier we trust

It was so hard to separate Taylor Cole and Javier Avendano last year that I’m not going to try and do so here.  Born eleven months apart, about the same height and weight, both right-handers.  The only real difference is in pro experience as Avendano, being Venezualen, signed for the Cardinals as a teenager, making his debut in 2008.  Cole went the college route, beginning his career in 2011.  Both were in their repeat years in Vancouver last season and both had absolutely phenomenal years, finishing one/two in the league in ERA, FIP, and WHIP.  Relying on control and good changeups, Norris and Avendano won’t overpower you, yet both still had very respectable K/9 and K/BB ratios.

With two Northwest League titles and excellent seasons under their belts, both these guys have absolutely nothing left to prove in short-season ball.  Given their age, and innings totals in 2012, they don’t really need to piggy back either.  However, both may be forced to for at least a quarter of the season before the leashes are taken off.  It’s not hard to figure out which pitching staff I’ll be most interested in this season.  Lansing’s should be very good again.

The Org Fillers:

Ben White – I found myself writing about Ben quite a bit last season.  Every time I went to the Nat, he seemed to be starting, and unfortunately for me, his stuff is just meh.  He did have some good starts, but he really doesn’t have anything to get excited about.  A fastball that sits in the mid 80′s and a decent curve won’t get the job done the higher he progresses, if in fact he does.  Although his numbers improved across the board in his repeat season with Vancouver, he’ll turn 24 in early May.  With Lansing’s staff looking pretty full, Ben may find it difficult to force his way into the rotation.  If he finds himself in extended spring training again, I would have thought he’d struggle to get out

Kyle Anderson – Maybe I should have started with the Org Fillers.  Would have spent a bit more time on them while still being excited to get to the prospects.  As it stands, I’m a bit tired.  I’m sure Kyle is a nice guy, and being from Woodenville, Washington, the Nat is practically a home game for him (for the pedantics out there, yes, Everett would be closer), but I just can’t get all that excited about a 4.62 K/9 ratio.  That tells me he struggles to miss bats, and if you can’t miss bats as a 22 year old in the Northwest League, your future in pro ball does not look rosy.  Five of his thirteen appearances were out of the bullpen, so there is a possibility that Kyle is promoted to Lansing in a relief role.  If he’s starting, he’ll also be repeating.

There were twenty three arms who logged innings in 2012 for the C’s.  Doing the math, that leaves me with 17 to look at when reviewing the relievers.  That just won’t work.  Think what I’ll do for the next post is just pick and choose a few hurlers that had good seasons or have interesting futures.  Apologies for the laziness, but real games are starting soon.

For me, attempting to predict next season’s club is a bit of fun.  More often than not, my ‘educated’ guesses are going to be dead wrong.  There are a lot people out there (far smarter than I), however, who take the baseball prediction business quite seriously.  Creating their own proprietary models, in an effort to predict future player performances.

This is just a nice shot (courtesy of the vancouversun.com)

One such model is Oliver, created by Brian Cartwright.  The reason I’ve chosen Oliver over other statistical models is simply its accessibility and use of, not only, previous minor league data but also college stats when factoring previous variables

As per above, this is meant to be a bit of fun.  In his email to me, Cartwright tempers any expectations for two reasons:

1) Any player with a sample size under 400 plate appearances (a weighted mean of previous three seasons) should be treated very skeptically and should be evaluated based on more traditional scouting tools.  With the bulk of players, especially those considered to be true prospects, in rookie ball having small sample sizes, any statistical model is subject to a ton of regression.

2) The bulk of the players in rookie ball are simply not all that good.  Sure, they are better than you and I, but for modelling purposes (explained a bit more below) there is little chance they will ever be successful at the major league level.

As a tool, Oliver is not attempting to predict how these players are going to perform at whatever level they play at in 2013, but how they would fare if called up to the Blue Jays in ’13.  More precisely, predicted performance for their affiliated major league club against major league talent in a mix of ballparks parent club plays in 2013.  With this in mind, it is not hard to see why the numbers are so conservative, especially the strikeout figures.

Before we get into the raw numbers, some definitions for the chosen statistics:

PA = plate appearances.  This is used as a denominator for both walk and strikeout percentage so included here to provide some context.  The predicted numbers are a function of past playing time so shouldn’t be taken seriously.

BB% = measure of how often a player walks per plate appearance.  Is a crucial variable for OBP which is also included but wanted to have as stand alone as well.  A high walk rate in the minor leagues, especially for younger players, is often a good sign that player has advanced pitch recognition.

K% = Strike outs per plate appearance.  For major leaguers, may not be as important as, for instance, power hitters provide value elsewhere and therefore we can forgive a high K rate.  For younger players though, if you are getting numbers in the 25-35 percent rate, then may be an indicator that player is struggling to adapt to pro pitching

OBP = on base percentage.  One of the simplest, but most important measurements of the value a player provides for run creation.

ISO = a simple way (slugging percentage – batting average) of measuring a hitters raw power.  Although it is difficult to use this stat for predicting rookie ball players power going forward, given the smaller sample sizes, fact that many players haven’t finished growing, and vagaries of different minor league ballparks, extra base hits are more valuable than singles so is still worth looking.

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One thing we can derive from the predictions……none of last year’s C’s will be seeing time in the major leagues this season.  Still, there a few positives.  Kellen Sweeney, who showed some good signs last year leads in BB% at 8% which is about the average at the major league level.  Nick Baligod, who came into his own in Lansing after his promotion, leads in both K% and OBP categories with perfectly average mlb numbers.

With the 2012 major league ISO average at .151 I was quite surprised that any, never mind three, players on the list were at or above the median.  The leader being this blog’s favourite whipping boy Balbino Fuenmayor at .165, which seems quite good against the average.  However, when categorizing only by first basemen, the average jumps to .179 which leaves The Big Bopper well short.

As I mentioned above reading much into statistical predictions for rookie ball players is a bit of a fool’s errand.  The older, more experienced players that actually provide enough historical context to effectively model are still in rookie ball for a reason and would probably best be described as organizational filler.  The younger players that scouts tell us are worth watching don’t have enough pro experience to allow for effective modelling without substantial amounts of guesswork.

We’ll get a far better idea of how the players we want to watch are developing when they start their seasons, whether it be in early April with Lansing/Dunedin or in June with Vancouver.  Still, this was a fun exercise, which gave us some interesting results.  It also served to introduce some of the statistics which we will focus on in the upcoming season, as your Vancouver Canadians look to three-peat in 2013.

We’re going to take a break from our regular Vancouver Canadians programming to look at the Canadians currently in Phoenix.

After watching the debacle that was the Italy game, I don’t think I was in the minority when I thought this tournament was going to end badly for Canada.  I laughed out loud after reading the below tweet from baseball insider Shi Davidi:

If Mexico hangs on, it’s great news for Canada, which would have fate back in own hands. Wins over Mexico and US would = second round berth

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) March 9, 2013

My immediate reaction was simple.  If Canada gets mercy ruled by Italy, they don’t have a hope in hell against either Mexico (who did end up beating the US) or one of the tournament favourites in Team USA.  If you can find the above tweet in your feed, read some of the comments it got, seems others shared the same view, albeit with far more colourful language.

But that is why they play the games.

This may need to be re-written again, but I am going to assume Canada can close this one out.  Presuming the US beats Italy (no guarantee given how well Italy have played) it sets up a winner take all for the second round tomorrow.

So, the million dollar question.  Does Canada have a chance?  To win, two things have to happen.

One, the middle order needs to produce like it has today.  So far, B.C. boys, Justin Morneau and Michael Saunders have been doing the bulk of the damage with eleven hits, including five doubles, between them.  If Joey Votto gets going, that is a very

turned out to be an alright tournament (photo courtesy of nasorb.cm)

potent combination.

Joe Torre is no dummy though. He’s looking to neutralize the Canadian middle order threat by sending left hander Derek Holland against the lefty hitting Canadian lineup.  Being a National Leaguer, Votto wouldn’t have seen much of Holland.  Career wise, Votto is such a good hitter it doesn’t really matter who he is facing.  Yes, he does have platoon splits, but we’re talking about an OPS of 1.001 vs righties against an .898 vs lefties.  Most hitters would kill for an .898 career OPS.

Morneau’s career totals versus Holland is two for nine with two walks.  Not great.  Saunders is zero for nine with three strike outs.  Even worse.  But hey, as I said above, that’s why they play the game.  Holland will be limited to sixty-five pitches as per the first round WBC format.  The key will be to get him to burn up those pitches as early as possible.  Unless Torre is intending on going to Gio Gonzales after Holland, the lefty relievers for the US don’t hold that same fear factor.

The second key for Canada.  Simply Jameson Taillon.  The youngest member of the Canadian roster and highest ever drafted Canadian, Taillon hopes to emulate current Canuck left-fielder Adam Loewen who kept the US off balance as a twenty-one year old in the 2006 tournament.

Taillon, a right-hander in the Pirates organization, had a solid 2012 season which was highlighted by three excellent starts after being called up to double-A Altoona in late August.  In seventeen innings, Jameson gave up three earned runs while striking out eighteen versus a single walk.  Those numbers equate to an exceptional 18 K/BB ratio and 1.26 FIP.  Granted, it is a small sample size, but doube-A is not as far from the majors as one may think.  He shouldn’t suffer any stage fright when facing the US hitters.

Getting a minimum of three solid innings from Jameson will be key.  This game will be broken down into chunks.  Canada can be reasonably confident that the final three innings are in good care with Milwaukee Brewer teammates Jim Henderson (despite yesterday’s struggles) and John Axford.  If Taillon can limit the damage and last three, then it is only the middle three that need concern the boys in red.   After yesterday’s horror show, I’m sure they would have been plenty concerned, but of the three hits Philippe Aumont gave up, two of them were broken bat bloops, while the Nippon Ham Fighter Dustin Molleken threw two clean-ish innings.

Today saw Toronto farmhand Trystan Magnuson throw two solid innings.   If things go right, a combination of those three plus University of British Columbia alum Mark Hardy playing the LOOGIE role could see them through.

Obviously today’s result has seen my hopes soar.  Perhaps unrealistically.  The US will be heavy favourites, having better players than Canada at every position bar first base.  But I really think Team Canada have a chance.  I’m not going to talk about momentum since I’m no believer in it, especially in baseball, but one thing I can guarantee is that today’s brawl will have done no harm in terms of team chemistry.

Am sure the boys will be telling war stories tonight over a beer or two.  Mix in the great result and Canada are going to be very relaxed going into tomorrow’s game.  All the pressure will be on Team USA’s shoulders, let’s hope they find it a bit heavy.