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Blue Jays Minor League Leaders by WAR

As I furiously plough through my Blue Jays top 30 prospect list (note: irony) I always try to take a bit of time to see what others are writing about the Jays.  Fangraphs is the last major publication to drop their Jays list but, recently, resident metric maverick Carson Cistulli undertook an exercise where he attempted to calculate minor league (hitters only) WAR.

If interested check out the Cistulli piece to get his full calculation methodology as I’m only going to provide the shortened version.

Essentially three ways of creating runs were used to get an overall value:

1) Batting Runs – using the metric wRAA

2) BaseRunning Runs – he uses Speed Scores (Spd)

3) Defensive Runs – basically a rough estimate based on positional adjustment per player

As Carston notes in the piece, it’s a bit of a napkin calculation as the data needed to calculate the WAR we are used to just isn’t available for minor league players.

The defensive component seems especially vague as the top seven Jays in that category are all shortstops (and I’m going to use that term loosely) which, along with catcher, rates the highest as far as positional adjustment is concerned.  And any defensive metric which has Dickie Thon Jr. in positive territory has to be flawed.

That all being said, the top defensive earner is Dawel Lugo at 5 runs, so not really a game changer.

Offensively, the wRAA figure can be found on any individual page at fangraphs.  It isn’t adjusted for park factors — which makes Barreto’s offensive numbers even more impressive given the difficult offensive environment of Vancouver’s Nat Bailey Stadium.  Something, with more brain power than I possess, could be done as the information is out there.

I thought it might be interesting to extract the Jays farmhands (note: not as easy as you may think as any player that spent time at multiple levels didn’t have a ‘Team’ to filter with, meaning I had to sift through over 1,000 players to find names I recognized) and generate a leaderboard based on WAR600 filter.

Few housekeeping notes, to make my list a player had to have at least 100 plate appearances which equates to roughly a month of playing.  Allows me to exclude rehabbing major league riff raff like Brett Lawrie.  As for the entire minor league list, using the same filters, both Jansen and Barreto come out around 130th for both WAR and WAR600.  Not bad.

If I was to make comments on everyone we’d be here all day, so let’s just make a few pointed….points:

– The analytics seem to match the buzz surrounding Dan Jansen after his excellent season in Bluefield.  I have a queasy feeling that he may skip Vancouver.

Franklin Barreto is a good player.  He is also very young.  Oakland got themselves a lottery ticket.  A nice one though.

– Except for the Dominican Summer League guys, the rest of the top 10 are all well known names that figure very prominently on many (mine included) prospect lists.

– Actually, check that, am quite surprised, given the depressed offensive environment at the Nat, how well Tim Locastro scored.  Loved to watch him play but no one tool (aside from his unerring ability to get hit by pitches) really stood out.  Will keep a very close eye on him as he makes his full-season debut in 2015.

– What’s more suprising is fact that some of the guys I have in my top 20 are down at the bottom of the table.

– and no, that doesn’t include D.J. Davis who checks in with -20.5 run differential with the bat??!  wow.  Even more flabbergasting is a guy who was caught stealing over 50% of the time has a positive run rate.

– Dawel Lugo’s negative hitting score is a bit surprising.  He needs to learn how to control the zone if he’s going to make any sort of strides this year.

– AJ Jimenez line sure seems to mesh with what people say.  He should be a nice defensive catcher that doesn’t really hit much.  Let’s hope those Puerto Rican numbers aren’t a mirage.

– Keep your eyes on Lane Thomas.  I hope to do it in person….but like Jansen, am not going to hold my breath

 

Name Team PA wRC+ Bat Run Off Def Rep WAR WAR600
Danny Jansen Blue Jays (R) 146 153 9.3 -0.1 9.2 1.8 4.9 1.6 6.5
Franklin Barreto Blue Jays (A-) 328 141 16.8 4.4 21.2 3.3 10.9 3.5 6.5
Dalton Pompey Blue Jays (A+, AA, AAA) 581 140 26.5 7.3 33.8 1.6 19.4 5.5 5.7
Kevin Pillar Blue Jays (AAA) 434 136 18.3 3.2 21.5 -1.5 14.5 3.4 4.8
Timothy Locastro Blue Jays (A-) 310 127 10.5 2.7 13.2 1.0 10.3 2.5 4.8
Francisco Rodriguez Blue Jays (R) 265 133 11.0 2.5 13.5 -1.4 8.8 2.1 4.7
Richard Urena Blue Jays (R, A-) 273 123 7.5 1.3 8.8 2.7 9.1 2.1 4.5
Lane Thomas Blue Jays (‘R) 225 125 6.6 2.0 8.6 0.8 7.5 1.7 4.5
Bryan Lizardo Blue Jays (R) 292 124 8.8 2.4 11.2 1.0 9.7 2.2 4.5
Juan Kelly Blue Jays (R) 212 119 4.9 0.7 5.6 2.7 7.1 1.5 4.3
Dwight Smith Blue Jays (A+) 580 130 19.5 5.0 24.5 -3.1 19.3 4.1 4.2
Rodrigo Orozco Blue Jays (R) 281 122 7.9 2.3 10.2 -1.5 9.4 1.8 3.9
Chris Carlson Blue Jays (A-) 257 129 9.2 0.1 9.3 -1.4 8.6 1.7 3.9
Emmanuel Moreta Blue Jays (R) 286 133 11.8 1.5 13.3 -4.8 9.5 1.8 3.8
Alexis Maldonado Blue Jays (A-) 168 114 2.9 0.8 3.7 0.6 5.6 1.0 3.5
Matt Dean Blue Jays (A) 485 117 9.6 0.6 10.2 1.6 16.2 2.8 3.5
Derrick Loveless Blue Jays (A) 508 119 11.5 3.6 15.1 -2.7 16.9 2.9 3.5
Joshua Almonte Blue Jays (R) 266 115 4.8 2.8 7.6 -1.4 8.9 1.5 3.4
Rowdy Tellez Blue Jays ® 267 134 10.8 -0.3 10.5 -4.5 8.9 1.5 3.4
Jason Leblebijian Blue Jays (A) 364 103 1.1 2.0 3.1 3.6 12.1 1.9 3.1
David Harris Blue Jays (A) 266 102 0.8 3.0 3.8 0.9 8.9 1.4 3.1
Ryan Mcbroom Blue Jays (A-) 298 130 11.1 -1.1 10.0 -5.0 9.9 1.5 3.0
Andy Burns Blue Jays (AA) 553 104 2.5 3.6 6.1 1.8 18.4 2.6 2.9
Rolando Segovia Blue Jays (R) 195 107 1.6 0.5 2.1 0.7 6.5 0.9 2.9
Brad Glenn Blue Jays (AA, AAA) 449 117 9.0 -0.5 8.5 -2.4 15.0 2.1 2.8
Jorge Flores Blue Jays (AA) 340 101 0.2 0.2 0.4 3.4 11.3 1.5 2.7
Mitch Nay Blue Jays (A, A+) 558 106 3.7 0.4 4.1 1.9 18.6 2.5 2.6
Juan Tejada Blue Jays (R) 188 103 0.7 2.0 2.7 -1.0 6.3 0.8 2.6
Dan Johnson Blue Jays (AAA) 459 128 14.8 -3.3 11.5 -7.7 15.3 1.9 2.5
Andy Fermin Blue Jays (A+) 199 106 1.4 -0.5 0.9 0.7 6.6 0.8 2.5
Jared Goedert Blue Jays (AAA) 391 103 1.6 0.1 1.7 1.3 13.0 1.6 2.5
Deiferson Barreto Blue Jays (R) 179 106 1.2 -0.5 0.7 0.6 6.0 0.7 2.4
Dickie Thon Blue Jays (A) 429 93 -3.5 1.8 -1.7 4.3 14.3 1.7 2.4
Marcus Knecht Blue Jays (A+) 451 106 3.1 1.8 4.9 -2.4 15.0 1.8 2.3
Roemon Fields Blue Jays (A-) 328 97 -1.1 4.7 3.6 -1.7 10.9 1.3 2.3
Michael Crouse Blue Jays (AA) 390 102 0.8 3.2 4.0 -2.1 13.0 1.5 2.3
Derrick Chung Blue Jays (AA) 384 99 -0.6 -2.4 -3.0 4.8 12.8 1.5 2.3
Emilio Guerrero Blue Jays (A+) 424 95 -2.2 0.0 -2.2 4.2 14.1 1.6 2.3
Justin Atkinson Blue Jays (A) 289 100 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 1.0 9.6 1.0 2.2
Munenori Kawasaki Blue Jays (AAA) 129 94 -0.9 0.0 -0.9 1.3 4.3 0.5 2.2
Shane Opitz Blue Jays (A+) 120 88 -1.7 0.7 -1.0 1.2 4.0 0.4 2.1
Christian Lopes Blue Jays (A+) 394 98 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4 1.3 13.1 1.3 2.0
Ronniel Demorizi Blue Jays (R) 195 95 -1.3 0.2 -1.1 0.7 6.5 0.6 1.9
Angel Rojas Blue Jays (R) 114 85 -2.0 0.6 -1.4 1.1 3.8 0.4 1.9
Santiago Nessy Blue Jays (A-) 268 88 -3.5 -0.5 -4.0 3.4 8.9 0.8 1.8
Ryan Goins Blue Jays (AAA) 402 92 -3.6 -0.6 -4.2 1.9 13.4 1.1 1.7
Sean Ochinko Blue Jays (AAA) 131 90 -1.4 -1.1 -2.5 1.6 4.4 0.4 1.6
Kevin Nolan Blue Jays (AA) 463 84 -8.6 0.7 -7.9 4.6 15.4 1.2 1.6
Dan Klein Blue Jays (A) 123 86 -2.1 -0.4 -2.5 1.5 4.1 0.3 1.5
Jesus Severino Blue Jays (R) 284 79 -7.6 2.5 -5.1 2.8 9.5 0.7 1.5
Chaz Frank Blue Jays (A) 307 91 -3.1 2.2 -0.9 -1.6 10.2 0.8 1.5
Michael De La Cruz Blue Jays (A-) 164 84 -3.3 -0.3 -3.6 2.1 5.5 0.4 1.4
Anthony Gose Blue Jays (AAA) 224 79 -5.4 2.3 -3.1 0.9 7.5 0.5 1.4
Andy Laroche Blue Jays (AAA) 224 92 -2.0 -1.4 -3.4 0.7 7.5 0.5 1.3
Jonathan Diaz Blue Jays (AAA) 303 76 -8.5 1.1 -7.4 3.7 10.1 0.6 1.3
Matt Newman Blue Jays (A+) 428 94 -3.2 -0.5 -3.7 -2.3 14.3 0.8 1.2
Nick Baligod Blue Jays (A+) 392 91 -4.2 0.5 -3.7 -2.1 13.1 0.7 1.1
A.J. Jimenez Blue Jays (AAA) 339 74 -10.3 -0.7 -11.0 4.2 11.3 0.5 0.8
Dawel Lugo Blue Jays (A) 498 76 -14.2 -1.4 -15.6 5.0 16.6 0.6 0.7
Kenny Wilson Blue Jays (AAA) 498 79 -13.3 5.0 -8.3 -2.7 16.6 0.6 0.7
L.B. Dantzler Blue Jays (A-) 384 99 -0.2 -2.3 -2.5 -6.4 12.8 0.4 0.6
Kevin Patterson Blue Jays (A+) 328 90 -3.7 0.1 -3.6 -5.5 10.9 0.2 0.4
Jonathan Jones Blue Jays (AA) 196 73 -6.1 1.3 -4.8 -1.0 6.5 0.1 0.2
Gabriel Cenas Blue Jays (R) 219 72 -7.4 -0.3 -7.7 0.7 7.3 0.0 0.1
Thomas Collins Iii Blue Jays (A-) 244 77 -7.0 0.3 -6.7 -1.3 8.1 0.0 0.0
D.J. Davis Blue Jays (A) 542 67 -20.5 3.7 -16.8 -2.9 18.1 -0.2 -0.2
Pierce Rankin Blue Jays (A+) 115 58 -5.6 -0.2 -5.8 1.4 3.8 -0.1 -0.3
Edwin Fuentes Blue Jays (R) 175 56 -9.2 0.5 -8.7 1.8 5.8 -0.1 -0.4
Seth Conner Blue Jays (A-) 99 62 -4.6 -0.6 -5.2 1.2 3.3 -0.1 -0.4
Mike Nickeas Blue Jays (AAA) 177 57 -8.8 -0.8 -9.6 2.2 5.9 -0.1 -0.5
Leudy Garcia Blue Jays (R) 103 57 -5.6 0.3 -5.3 -0.5 3.4 -0.2 -1.4
Andres De Aza Blue Jays (R) 90 47 -5.7 -0.2 -5.9 -0.5 3.0 -0.3 -2.3
Jesus Gonzalez Blue Jays (R) 182 42 -12.7 0.6 -12.1 -1.0 6.1 -0.7 -2.3
Christian Vazquez Blue Jays (A-) 90 26 -8.3 -0.5 -8.8 0.9 3.0 -0.5 -3.2
Gabe Jacobo Blue Jays (AA) 146 19 -13.8 -0.7 -14.5 -2.4 4.9 -1.2 -5.0

 

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