As I furiously plough through my Blue Jays top 30 prospect list (note: irony) I always try to take a bit of time to see what others are writing about the Jays. Fangraphs is the last major publication to drop their Jays list but, recently, resident metric maverick Carson Cistulli undertook an exercise where he attempted to calculate minor league (hitters only) WAR.
If interested check out the Cistulli piece to get his full calculation methodology as I’m only going to provide the shortened version.
Essentially three ways of creating runs were used to get an overall value:
1) Batting Runs – using the metric wRAA
2) BaseRunning Runs – he uses Speed Scores (Spd)
3) Defensive Runs – basically a rough estimate based on positional adjustment per player
As Carston notes in the piece, it’s a bit of a napkin calculation as the data needed to calculate the WAR we are used to just isn’t available for minor league players.
The defensive component seems especially vague as the top seven Jays in that category are all shortstops (and I’m going to use that term loosely) which, along with catcher, rates the highest as far as positional adjustment is concerned. And any defensive metric which has Dickie Thon Jr. in positive territory has to be flawed.
That all being said, the top defensive earner is Dawel Lugo at 5 runs, so not really a game changer.
Offensively, the wRAA figure can be found on any individual page at fangraphs. It isn’t adjusted for park factors — which makes Barreto’s offensive numbers even more impressive given the difficult offensive environment of Vancouver’s Nat Bailey Stadium. Something, with more brain power than I possess, could be done as the information is out there.
I thought it might be interesting to extract the Jays farmhands (note: not as easy as you may think as any player that spent time at multiple levels didn’t have a ‘Team’ to filter with, meaning I had to sift through over 1,000 players to find names I recognized) and generate a leaderboard based on WAR600 filter.
Few housekeeping notes, to make my list a player had to have at least 100 plate appearances which equates to roughly a month of playing. Allows me to exclude rehabbing major league riff raff like Brett Lawrie. As for the entire minor league list, using the same filters, both Jansen and Barreto come out around 130th for both WAR and WAR600. Not bad.
If I was to make comments on everyone we’d be here all day, so let’s just make a few pointed….points:
– The analytics seem to match the buzz surrounding Dan Jansen after his excellent season in Bluefield. I have a queasy feeling that he may skip Vancouver.
– Franklin Barreto is a good player. He is also very young. Oakland got themselves a lottery ticket. A nice one though.
– Except for the Dominican Summer League guys, the rest of the top 10 are all well known names that figure very prominently on many (mine included) prospect lists.
– Actually, check that, am quite surprised, given the depressed offensive environment at the Nat, how well Tim Locastro scored. Loved to watch him play but no one tool (aside from his unerring ability to get hit by pitches) really stood out. Will keep a very close eye on him as he makes his full-season debut in 2015.
– What’s more suprising is fact that some of the guys I have in my top 20 are down at the bottom of the table.
– and no, that doesn’t include D.J. Davis who checks in with -20.5 run differential with the bat??! wow. Even more flabbergasting is a guy who was caught stealing over 50% of the time has a positive run rate.
– Dawel Lugo’s negative hitting score is a bit surprising. He needs to learn how to control the zone if he’s going to make any sort of strides this year.
– AJ Jimenez line sure seems to mesh with what people say. He should be a nice defensive catcher that doesn’t really hit much. Let’s hope those Puerto Rican numbers aren’t a mirage.
– Keep your eyes on Lane Thomas. I hope to do it in person….but like Jansen, am not going to hold my breath
|Danny Jansen||Blue Jays (R)||146||153||9.3||-0.1||9.2||1.8||4.9||1.6||6.5|
|Franklin Barreto||Blue Jays (A-)||328||141||16.8||4.4||21.2||3.3||10.9||3.5||6.5|
|Dalton Pompey||Blue Jays (A+, AA, AAA)||581||140||26.5||7.3||33.8||1.6||19.4||5.5||5.7|
|Kevin Pillar||Blue Jays (AAA)||434||136||18.3||3.2||21.5||-1.5||14.5||3.4||4.8|
|Timothy Locastro||Blue Jays (A-)||310||127||10.5||2.7||13.2||1.0||10.3||2.5||4.8|
|Francisco Rodriguez||Blue Jays (R)||265||133||11.0||2.5||13.5||-1.4||8.8||2.1||4.7|
|Richard Urena||Blue Jays (R, A-)||273||123||7.5||1.3||8.8||2.7||9.1||2.1||4.5|
|Lane Thomas||Blue Jays (‘R)||225||125||6.6||2.0||8.6||0.8||7.5||1.7||4.5|
|Bryan Lizardo||Blue Jays (R)||292||124||8.8||2.4||11.2||1.0||9.7||2.2||4.5|
|Juan Kelly||Blue Jays (R)||212||119||4.9||0.7||5.6||2.7||7.1||1.5||4.3|
|Dwight Smith||Blue Jays (A+)||580||130||19.5||5.0||24.5||-3.1||19.3||4.1||4.2|
|Rodrigo Orozco||Blue Jays (R)||281||122||7.9||2.3||10.2||-1.5||9.4||1.8||3.9|
|Chris Carlson||Blue Jays (A-)||257||129||9.2||0.1||9.3||-1.4||8.6||1.7||3.9|
|Emmanuel Moreta||Blue Jays (R)||286||133||11.8||1.5||13.3||-4.8||9.5||1.8||3.8|
|Alexis Maldonado||Blue Jays (A-)||168||114||2.9||0.8||3.7||0.6||5.6||1.0||3.5|
|Matt Dean||Blue Jays (A)||485||117||9.6||0.6||10.2||1.6||16.2||2.8||3.5|
|Derrick Loveless||Blue Jays (A)||508||119||11.5||3.6||15.1||-2.7||16.9||2.9||3.5|
|Joshua Almonte||Blue Jays (R)||266||115||4.8||2.8||7.6||-1.4||8.9||1.5||3.4|
|Rowdy Tellez||Blue Jays ®||267||134||10.8||-0.3||10.5||-4.5||8.9||1.5||3.4|
|Jason Leblebijian||Blue Jays (A)||364||103||1.1||2.0||3.1||3.6||12.1||1.9||3.1|
|David Harris||Blue Jays (A)||266||102||0.8||3.0||3.8||0.9||8.9||1.4||3.1|
|Ryan Mcbroom||Blue Jays (A-)||298||130||11.1||-1.1||10.0||-5.0||9.9||1.5||3.0|
|Andy Burns||Blue Jays (AA)||553||104||2.5||3.6||6.1||1.8||18.4||2.6||2.9|
|Rolando Segovia||Blue Jays (R)||195||107||1.6||0.5||2.1||0.7||6.5||0.9||2.9|
|Brad Glenn||Blue Jays (AA, AAA)||449||117||9.0||-0.5||8.5||-2.4||15.0||2.1||2.8|
|Jorge Flores||Blue Jays (AA)||340||101||0.2||0.2||0.4||3.4||11.3||1.5||2.7|
|Mitch Nay||Blue Jays (A, A+)||558||106||3.7||0.4||4.1||1.9||18.6||2.5||2.6|
|Juan Tejada||Blue Jays (R)||188||103||0.7||2.0||2.7||-1.0||6.3||0.8||2.6|
|Dan Johnson||Blue Jays (AAA)||459||128||14.8||-3.3||11.5||-7.7||15.3||1.9||2.5|
|Andy Fermin||Blue Jays (A+)||199||106||1.4||-0.5||0.9||0.7||6.6||0.8||2.5|
|Jared Goedert||Blue Jays (AAA)||391||103||1.6||0.1||1.7||1.3||13.0||1.6||2.5|
|Deiferson Barreto||Blue Jays (R)||179||106||1.2||-0.5||0.7||0.6||6.0||0.7||2.4|
|Dickie Thon||Blue Jays (A)||429||93||-3.5||1.8||-1.7||4.3||14.3||1.7||2.4|
|Marcus Knecht||Blue Jays (A+)||451||106||3.1||1.8||4.9||-2.4||15.0||1.8||2.3|
|Roemon Fields||Blue Jays (A-)||328||97||-1.1||4.7||3.6||-1.7||10.9||1.3||2.3|
|Michael Crouse||Blue Jays (AA)||390||102||0.8||3.2||4.0||-2.1||13.0||1.5||2.3|
|Derrick Chung||Blue Jays (AA)||384||99||-0.6||-2.4||-3.0||4.8||12.8||1.5||2.3|
|Emilio Guerrero||Blue Jays (A+)||424||95||-2.2||0.0||-2.2||4.2||14.1||1.6||2.3|
|Justin Atkinson||Blue Jays (A)||289||100||-0.1||0.0||-0.1||1.0||9.6||1.0||2.2|
|Munenori Kawasaki||Blue Jays (AAA)||129||94||-0.9||0.0||-0.9||1.3||4.3||0.5||2.2|
|Shane Opitz||Blue Jays (A+)||120||88||-1.7||0.7||-1.0||1.2||4.0||0.4||2.1|
|Christian Lopes||Blue Jays (A+)||394||98||-0.9||-0.5||-1.4||1.3||13.1||1.3||2.0|
|Ronniel Demorizi||Blue Jays (R)||195||95||-1.3||0.2||-1.1||0.7||6.5||0.6||1.9|
|Angel Rojas||Blue Jays (R)||114||85||-2.0||0.6||-1.4||1.1||3.8||0.4||1.9|
|Santiago Nessy||Blue Jays (A-)||268||88||-3.5||-0.5||-4.0||3.4||8.9||0.8||1.8|
|Ryan Goins||Blue Jays (AAA)||402||92||-3.6||-0.6||-4.2||1.9||13.4||1.1||1.7|
|Sean Ochinko||Blue Jays (AAA)||131||90||-1.4||-1.1||-2.5||1.6||4.4||0.4||1.6|
|Kevin Nolan||Blue Jays (AA)||463||84||-8.6||0.7||-7.9||4.6||15.4||1.2||1.6|
|Dan Klein||Blue Jays (A)||123||86||-2.1||-0.4||-2.5||1.5||4.1||0.3||1.5|
|Jesus Severino||Blue Jays (R)||284||79||-7.6||2.5||-5.1||2.8||9.5||0.7||1.5|
|Chaz Frank||Blue Jays (A)||307||91||-3.1||2.2||-0.9||-1.6||10.2||0.8||1.5|
|Michael De La Cruz||Blue Jays (A-)||164||84||-3.3||-0.3||-3.6||2.1||5.5||0.4||1.4|
|Anthony Gose||Blue Jays (AAA)||224||79||-5.4||2.3||-3.1||0.9||7.5||0.5||1.4|
|Andy Laroche||Blue Jays (AAA)||224||92||-2.0||-1.4||-3.4||0.7||7.5||0.5||1.3|
|Jonathan Diaz||Blue Jays (AAA)||303||76||-8.5||1.1||-7.4||3.7||10.1||0.6||1.3|
|Matt Newman||Blue Jays (A+)||428||94||-3.2||-0.5||-3.7||-2.3||14.3||0.8||1.2|
|Nick Baligod||Blue Jays (A+)||392||91||-4.2||0.5||-3.7||-2.1||13.1||0.7||1.1|
|A.J. Jimenez||Blue Jays (AAA)||339||74||-10.3||-0.7||-11.0||4.2||11.3||0.5||0.8|
|Dawel Lugo||Blue Jays (A)||498||76||-14.2||-1.4||-15.6||5.0||16.6||0.6||0.7|
|Kenny Wilson||Blue Jays (AAA)||498||79||-13.3||5.0||-8.3||-2.7||16.6||0.6||0.7|
|L.B. Dantzler||Blue Jays (A-)||384||99||-0.2||-2.3||-2.5||-6.4||12.8||0.4||0.6|
|Kevin Patterson||Blue Jays (A+)||328||90||-3.7||0.1||-3.6||-5.5||10.9||0.2||0.4|
|Jonathan Jones||Blue Jays (AA)||196||73||-6.1||1.3||-4.8||-1.0||6.5||0.1||0.2|
|Gabriel Cenas||Blue Jays (R)||219||72||-7.4||-0.3||-7.7||0.7||7.3||0.0||0.1|
|Thomas Collins Iii||Blue Jays (A-)||244||77||-7.0||0.3||-6.7||-1.3||8.1||0.0||0.0|
|D.J. Davis||Blue Jays (A)||542||67||-20.5||3.7||-16.8||-2.9||18.1||-0.2||-0.2|
|Pierce Rankin||Blue Jays (A+)||115||58||-5.6||-0.2||-5.8||1.4||3.8||-0.1||-0.3|
|Edwin Fuentes||Blue Jays (R)||175||56||-9.2||0.5||-8.7||1.8||5.8||-0.1||-0.4|
|Seth Conner||Blue Jays (A-)||99||62||-4.6||-0.6||-5.2||1.2||3.3||-0.1||-0.4|
|Mike Nickeas||Blue Jays (AAA)||177||57||-8.8||-0.8||-9.6||2.2||5.9||-0.1||-0.5|
|Leudy Garcia||Blue Jays (R)||103||57||-5.6||0.3||-5.3||-0.5||3.4||-0.2||-1.4|
|Andres De Aza||Blue Jays (R)||90||47||-5.7||-0.2||-5.9||-0.5||3.0||-0.3||-2.3|
|Jesus Gonzalez||Blue Jays (R)||182||42||-12.7||0.6||-12.1||-1.0||6.1||-0.7||-2.3|
|Christian Vazquez||Blue Jays (A-)||90||26||-8.3||-0.5||-8.8||0.9||3.0||-0.5||-3.2|
|Gabe Jacobo||Blue Jays (AA)||146||19||-13.8||-0.7||-14.5||-2.4||4.9||-1.2||-5.0|